![]() ![]() Part of the decline that China is witnessing is a natural product of its economic development, although the sharpness of the decline and the role that an unbalanced sex ratio plays as a direct result of the One Child Policy cannot be dismissed. Historically, birthrates around the world declined as economic growth increased and economies shifted from agrarian subsistence, in which large families are useful as additional labor, to complex and urbanized market economies, in which large families can be burdensome. The dramatic U-turn that the government has taken, from strictly limiting births less than a decade ago to desperately encouraging Chinese women to give birth, has been one of the most stark shifts in government policy of the Xi Jinping era (see the More Child Policy section later in this paper). The first is the long-term effects of the One Child Policy, which lasted from 1980 through 2016. 1Ĭhina’s precipitous decline in fertility rate is attributable to a number of factors. In late 2020, Li Jiheng, then China’s minister of civil affairs, warned that “at present, Chinese people are relatively unwilling to have children, the fertility rate has already fallen below the warning line, and population growth has entered into a critical turning point.” Standing at 1.16 in 2021, China’s fertility rate was well below the 2.1 standard for a stable population established by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) - putting China’s rate among the lowest in the world. This trend is extremely worrying for the government in Beijing, as it sees the oncoming demographic collapse as one of the greatest existential threats facing the country. Many young people are the last of their family line. ![]() When young people claim that they are the last generation, they are echoing a social reality. The United Nations predicts that in 2023, China’s overall population will start to decline. From 2017 to 2021, the number of births in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, and other populous provinces dropped more than 40 percent. In 2021, the most recent year for which there is data, 11 provinces fell into negative population growth. China’s birthrate has declined precipitously in recent years. That dark mood may be contributing to a key challenge for China: a widespread disinterest in having children. It captured a growing mood of inertia and hopelessness in the country, one that had been percolating for a number of years but finally boiled over during the COVID-19 pandemic. This scene, posted online, quickly went viral, and the phrase “the last generation” (最后一代) took the Chinese internet by storm. “We’re the last generation, thank you,” comes the response. “Once you’re punished, this will affect your family for three generations!” he shouts, wagging a finger toward the camera. ![]() Finally, a man in full hazmat gear, with the characters for “policeman” (警察) emblazoned on his chest, strides forward. The epidemic-prevention workers keep insisting that the couple must go. Holding a phone in his hand, the man in the household tells the epidemic workers why he won’t be taken. The epidemic-prevention workers stand in the doorway of the home of a couple who are refusing to be dragged to a quarantine facility in May 2022, during the infamous Shanghai lockdown. ![]()
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